Definitions
- Churn rate: the share of subscribers at the start of the month who did not renew during it.
- Renewal rate: the share of subscribers at the start of the month who stayed. It is 100% minus churn.
- Net growth: new subscribers minus lost subscribers. If it is negative, the page is shrinking even if new people keep arriving.
- Average stay: a rough guide to how many months a subscriber stays, worked out as 1 ÷ churn rate. It assumes churn stays about the same every month, which it rarely does exactly.
Why churn matters as much as new subscribers
Every subscriber you lose has to be replaced before the page grows at all. Two pages with the same number of new subscribers can end the month in very different places because one keeps more of its existing fans.
Churn is usually shaped by what happens after someone subscribes: whether the content matches what the profile promised, how regularly you post, and how quickly messages are answered. Our page KPI calculator adds conversion and earnings per subscriber to the picture.
The formula
Churn rate = subscribers lost ÷ subscribers at the start × 100
Renewal rate = (subscribers at the start − subscribers lost) ÷ subscribers at the start × 100
Subscribers at the end = start + new − lost
Net growth = new − lost (and ÷ start × 100 as a percentage)
Rough average stay in months = 1 ÷ churn rate (as a decimal)
A worked example
You start the month with 400 subscribers, 120 new people subscribe and 80 do not renew.
| Churn rate (80 ÷ 400) | 20% |
|---|---|
| Renewal rate (320 ÷ 400) | 80% |
| Subscribers at the end (400 + 120 − 80) | 440 |
| Net growth (120 − 80) | +40 (10%) |
| Rough average stay (1 ÷ 0.2) | about 5 months |
If churn fell to 15% with the same 120 new subscribers, only 60 would leave and the page would end on 460 instead of 440.
What to watch out for
- Count the same way every month. Changing what counts as “lost” makes the trend meaningless.
- Free trials and discounted first months often churn more when they end. Look at those subscribers separately if your statistics allow it.
- Followers are not subscribers. On platforms with a free follow option, such as Fansly, only count paying subscribers here.
- A single month can be noisy, especially on a small page. Look at three months or more before drawing conclusions.
- Average stay is a rule of thumb. It is useful for comparing months, not for promising anything about the future.
General information only, not financial, legal or tax advice. The tool does arithmetic on figures you enter and makes no prediction about what any page will earn. Platform fees and rules change, so check your platform’s current terms.